AI Octopus makes World Cup scenarios instant, and Spain's odds swing wildly

The AI Octopus team is turning the World Cup forecasting hype into something far more operational: a 2026 FIFA World Cup simulator where users can type scenarios and get updated probabilities quickly. In the baseline model at the time of writing, Spain has an 18 percent chance of lifting the trophy and a 26.8 percent chance of reaching the finals. Then you do one silly thing and the math rebels. When asked, “What if the Spanish team eats a bad paella?” Spain’s chance of winning drops to 1.5 percent, with France projected as the champion.

That swing is the point. Luzmo CTO and co-founder Haroen Vermylen says the system is designed so “Sensible questions work - a red card, a key injury, a heat wave, a squad switching base camp - but so do the daft ones, e.g. 'What if the tournament were played with rugby rules?'