Forty percent of homeowners considered moving as taxes shattered the “predictable” fixed mortgage

A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was supposed to be the predictable anchor of homeownership. But a new Fortune-cited Ownwell survey finds 40% of homeowners have considered moving because their property taxes got so high, and that is a very different kind of housing affordability problem.

Ownwell polled 2,500 U.S. homeowners. The results are blunt: 76% say their property taxes in recent years have run higher than they budgeted for, up 10 percentage points from just a year earlier. Nearly two-thirds were surprised or shocked by their most recent tax bill. And 9 in 10 homeowners said they are concerned about the long-term financial hit of rising property taxes. Ownwell CEO Colton Pace frames it as an affordability shock that arrives after closing, like insurance, and especially in states with high property taxes such as New York, Massachusetts, and Texas.

This is why the “fixed” part of fixed-rate mortgages starts to feel less fixed in practice. The loan payment might be stable, but the costs bundled into the monthly payment are not. Taxes and insurance can change month-to-month or year-to-year because property taxes can reset annually on county-by-county schedules and insurance premiums can change at renewal. Pace’s key point to Fortune is simple and annoying: homeowners are not tracking two separate bills. They are often waiting for an escrow letter or a county notice of value to discover that their payment just changed.

The math behind those notices is also getting harder to forecast. Fortune reports that the average sales price of new homes rose roughly 23% on average over the past five years, based on Federal Reserve data. Tax assessments frequently follow those movements. Property taxes reset annually and hinge on local housing markets, county and city budgets, and the tax rates that flow from them. Even economists can struggle to forecast how that plays out for a specific homeowner, which means the size of the hit can feel like a surprise even when the structure is “known.”

Real estate professionals see the same pattern. Kori Sassower, principal agent of The Kori Sassower Team at Compass, told Fortune that buyers focus on the mortgage rate and home price, and forget that other expenses could be “more a month than their mortgage.” Sassower, who is dually licensed in New York and Connecticut, says taxes vary greatly from one town, village, or city to the next. But she also points to maintenance as the expense that catches people off guard most. Maintenance can include seasonal HVAC servicing, pest control, tree trimming, power washing, gutter cleaning, and stone repointing.

Other agents add how the cost stack changes depending on the home type. For condo buyers, monthly association fees can increase over time, Miltiadis Kastanis, a Miami-based real estate agent with Compass, told Fortune. Kastanis argues that good advisors prepare buyers upfront, but there is a learning curve after someone becomes a homeowner because the true cost of ownership goes beyond the monthly mortgage payment. Michelle Griffith, a New York City-based agent with Douglas Elliman, told Fortune that NYC buyers are generally more aware of property taxes and other monthly costs. Still, the surprises often come from less obvious expenses: assessments, maintenance fees, furnishings, and the costs of maintaining a larger residence.

If you are trying to understand why this matters beyond individual households, the survey results connect to broader cost trends. Bankrate’s 2025 study, as cited by Fortune, estimates that hidden costs of owning a single-family home, including property taxes, insurance, utilities, internet, and maintenance, now cost more than $21,000 per year nationally. Maintenance alone accounts for $8,808, the single largest piece. The Bankrate survey also found that the most common regret among homeowners was that upkeep and other hidden costs ran more expensive than expected.

Insurance has its own momentum that compounds the problem. Insurify data cited by Fortune says the average annual home insurance premium jumped 12% in 2025 and is on track to rise another 4%, to about $3,057, by the end of 2026. Premiums have climbed 46% since 2021, roughly three times the pace of inflation. The pain is concentrated in disaster-exposed states: Florida’s typical premium is approaching $8,500, and California is expected to see the steepest increases in 2026 after the Los Angeles wildfires.

Put it together and you get a clear second-order story: the down payment and mortgage rate get a buyer through the door, but affordability is determined after closing. Kastanis’ point to Fortune is that recurring expenses may not make a home unaffordable on paper, but they can meaningfully impact a homeowner’s monthly budget and lifestyle. When 40% of homeowners are at least considering a move due to property taxes, that is not just personal financial stress. It can ripple through local demand, resale timing, and how confidently buyers can plan for the years when a mortgage is “fixed” but the cost of staying is not. For executives, boards, and anyone underwriting the housing-related economy, this is the affordability metric to watch: not just the interest rate, but the post-close bill volatility.