Gulf hiring turns selective as real estate and finance still grow

Gulf hiring is not collapsing. It is splitting in two. That is the real story in April, when real estate hiring rose 8 per cent year on year and finance rose 6 per cent, even as sales and marketing fell 3 per cent, according to Cooper Fitch’s Gulf Employment Index. In other words, employers across the region are still hiring, but they are getting much pickier about which roles survive the approval process.

The pattern matters because it shows how regional tensions, including the Iran war, are changing corporate behavior without fully shutting the labor market down. Companies are still backing roles tied to revenue, regulation and delivery. They are pulling back on discretionary expansion, especially in tourism, hospitality, retail and marketing, where spending can be delayed faster than a project can be approved. For executives, that means the old broad hiring playbook is giving way to a tighter, more selective one.

The Cooper Fitch data shows the Gulf labor market moving at two speeds. Real estate posted the strongest year-on-year hiring growth in April at 8 per cent, followed by finance at 6 per cent. HR and banking were both up 4 per cent, while energy and the public sector rose 3 per cent each. By contrast, sales and marketing were the weakest area, down 3 per cent year on year, and manufacturing fell 1 per cent. The message is not that companies have stopped building teams. It is that they are prioritizing the parts of the business that can defend cash flow, support compliance or keep major projects moving.

Justin McGuire, chairman of MCG Talent and founder of Justin McGuire Growth & Talent Advisory, said companies are pausing non-essential hires and taking a more selective approach. But he also made clear that not all hiring has lost momentum. “That said, senior and business-critical replacements are still moving forward, and anything sales-related continues at pace. Revenue generation remains the priority regardless of the climate.” He added that technology and finance remain resilient, while government and semi-government entities are largely continuing hiring plans. The slowdown is more visible in marketing, agencies and consulting, where discretionary spending is under scrutiny. “Businesses aren’t hiring speculatively,” he said. “Every hire needs a clear and immediate justification.”

That is the tell for boardrooms. Hiring is still happening, but the bar has moved from “useful later” to “needed now.” The report shows GCC hiring in April was flat compared with the same month last year, even though the region had been on track for stronger growth before the latest escalation in tensions. March had already delivered a 12 per cent contraction, the steepest fall in the first four months of the year, before April rebounded 13 per cent as paused projects and hiring pipelines resumed. Cooper Fitch said that rebound reflected pent-up demand rather than a full recovery, with externally driven sectors still more cautious than domestic ones. So the labor market is not in retreat. It is acting like a company that has watched the macro weather turn and decided to keep the roof on, but reinforce only the load-bearing beams.

Financial services recruiters say the cooling is most obvious in roles connected to broad expansion rather than immediate business need. George Sames, founder and managing director of Oneira Talent Solutions, said, “There has definitely been a disruption,” and added, “Hiring has certainly slowed down. The general market consensus is much more conservative.” His firm focuses on investment management, private equity, family offices and capital deployment businesses, and he said the mix of open roles has changed. Broad growth roles have been pushed back, while replacement positions, senior leadership mandates and governance, risk and compliance roles remain active. “Demand has not completely vanished,” he said. “A lot of the stuff that was put on pause in terms of hiring was very much just on pause. It doesn’t mean those roles are cancelled.”

That distinction is especially important in banking and finance. Cooper Fitch said demand there is centered on risk, compliance, governance and balance-sheet discipline, with finance hiring supported by need for FP&A, treasury, governance and tax expertise. Those are not flashy growth roles. They are the jobs companies turn to when they want tighter control over money, reporting and oversight. Real estate, meanwhile, is being supported by ongoing project delivery and commercial activity across residential, commercial and master-development pipelines, with demand concentrated in delivery, project management and commercial roles. In plain English: if a company is still pouring concrete, closing books or managing regulatory exposure, it is still hiring.

Pedro Lacerda, senior vice president at TASC Outsourcing, said employers across the GCC are moving away from broad hiring waves and becoming more focused on specialized roles that can deliver immediate impact. “Across the GCC, hiring is becoming more measured and selective, with organisations taking a closer look at headcount decisions and prioritising roles that are directly linked to business continuity and growth,” he said. He added that demand in the UAE remains strongest in technology, construction and financial services, particularly across AI, data, engineering, project management and cybersecurity. Recruiters expect the next few months to stay cautious, especially over the summer, though some delayed mandates could return later in the year if regional conditions stabilize. For CEOs, CFOs and boards, the playbook is straightforward: do not mistake caution for a freeze. The firms that keep hiring strategically now, rather than slamming the brakes, may be better placed when confidence comes back.