OECD: prolonged Iran conflict could trigger global recession wave
The OECD warns that if the US-Iran standoff drags into 2027, world GDP growth could halve and push several economies into contraction.
The OECD forecasts that a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran extending into 2027 could slash global GDP growth to 2.1% from 3.4%, triggering multiple recessions and energy shortages. For CEOs and CFOs, this scenario demands immediate contingency planning for supply chain disruption, higher energy costs, and declining consumer demand in vulnerable markets.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has dropped a sobering scenario: if the US-Iran conflict drags on into 2027, the global economy could face a wave of recessions. In its latest Economic Outlook, the Paris-based club of industrialized countries projects that world GDP growth would fall to just 2.1% this year, down sharply from 3.4% in 2025. That is not a slow stumble, it is a near-halving of global expansion, one that the OECD says would push several individual economies into outright contraction.
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