SpaceX to retire Falcon 9 once Starship flies reliably, Musk says

SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk confirmed the long-rumored plan: the company will retire its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket once the next-generation Starship begins flying reliably several times per week. In an Aug. 22 post on X, Musk wrote that "winding down Falcon" - both Falcon 9 and the triple-booster Falcon Heavy - is inevitable, and that shifting production resources to Starship will allow the company to scale launch rate to several times per day. The announcement marks the beginning of the end for the most-flown rocket in history, with nearly 700 launches since its 2010 debut, and the first orbital rocket ever to land and refly its first-stage booster. Only Russia's Soyuz, in operation since 1957, has more missions, but Falcon 9 is on track to pass it next year.

The timeline for the phase-out is not set in stone, but industry reports suggest SpaceX may discontinue all but a few Falcon 9 missions beginning in 2028. The remaining flights will likely be reserved for NASA crew and resupply missions to the International Space Station (ISS), which is expected to continue flying until at least 2030. That means commercial operators will have to start looking to Starship to deliver their satellites to space, a shift that will have profound implications for the launch market. The transition hinges on Starship's development, which has flown 13 suborbital test flights to date, with another launch expected within the next month that may be its first attempt at fully reaching orbit.

Starship is a fundamentally different vehicle from Falcon 9. It is built for full reusability, with both the Super Heavy booster and Ship upper stage designed to return to Earth for recovery and reflight, whereas Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy upper stages are expendable. The current Version 3 (V3) Starship stands 408 feet (124.4 meters) tall, towering over the 230-foot (70 m) Falcon 9, and is capable of delivering more than 100 tons to low Earth orbit (LEO). By comparison, Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy can carry about 25 tons and 63 tons to LEO, respectively. This larger capacity is a key reason why SpaceX is eager to transition: the more powerful next generation of Starlink satellites are bigger and designed to fit in Starship's payload bay, not atop the Falcon 9.

The majority of Falcon 9 missions over the past few years have been dedicated to SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet network, with more than 300 launches since 2023 adding to the growing constellation of over 11,000 spacecraft. Once Starship is launching reliably, SpaceX plans to begin upgrading its Starlink network with the newer satellite version, which will likely kick off an exponential upward trend for Starship launches. This pattern mirrors Falcon 9's own history: SpaceX launched the rocket just 11 times in 2019, the year the company began assembling its Starlink constellation, and in 2025 Falcon 9 flew a whopping 165 missions, with 122 of them dedicated to Starlink flights.

NASA has also contracted SpaceX to design a version of Starship for use as a lunar landing vehicle for the Artemis missions. A Starship V3 is in line to launch on the Artemis III mission next year, which will practice docking operability in LEO with NASA's Orion spacecraft. Starship has also been slated to deliver astronauts to the surface of the moon on Artemis IV in 2028, which is also when SpaceX has told NASA it plans to end commercial Falcon 9 launches, according to Ars Technica. However, Starship has not yet been contracted or designed for docking with the ISS, and NASA is positioned to continue purchasing flights of SpaceX's cargo and Crew Dragon spacecraft to deliver astronauts and supplies to the space station through 2030. The sheer size of Starship poses significant engineering risks outside the station's safety margins, making it unlikely to replace Falcon 9 for ISS missions in the near term.

The pace of Falcon 9's retirement will ultimately depend on how quickly SpaceX can scale Starship to match Falcon 9's reliability. Building up Starship's infrastructure is a much bigger enterprise than the dozen or so successful test flights the vehicle has under its belt. For commercial operators, the transition means adapting to a new launch vehicle with different payload capacities, costs, and scheduling dynamics. For competitors, it signals that SpaceX is doubling down on a fully reusable, high-cadence launch model that could further consolidate its dominance in the market. The question is not whether Falcon 9 will be retired, but when - and how smoothly the industry can make the leap to Starship.