Toy Story 5 led again with $70 million in its second weekend, showing a 56.2% drop to push its total to $297.2 million after 10 days. That matters because Supergirl, the DC reboot’s second swing, came in with a $38 million opening and now faces the very real risk of missing a basic financial milestone: the story here is less “DC is down,” and more “DC might not even get to $100 million domestically.”

This isn’t just fanbase vibes. The numbers suggest the market is pricing Supergirl as a weaker bet right out of the gate. Supergirl’s second-week weekend performance is framed as a continuation of an underwhelming trajectory, with box office context comparing it to other recent, similarly pressured late-June releases. Rotten Tomatoes also flags the film’s word of mouth pressure: it scored 56% on the Tomatometer, and the source says it is not expected to be good. In other words, the opening gave DC a headwind, and the reception is not an engine that can turn that headwind into lift.

Meanwhile, Toy Story 5 is doing the unsexy work of compounding. The drop to $70 million is near the vicinity of Finding Dory ($72.9 million), Captain America: Civil War ($72.6 million), and Iron Man 3 ($72.5 million). That matters strategically because sequels do not just need to open strong, they need to avoid “burning” too fast. The source notes only five films out of 44 have grossed $250 million in their first 10 days and failed to reach $400 million, listing Batman v Superman, Wicked: For Good, Furious 7, Jurassic World: Dominion, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. The only film over $275 million at this point to not join the $400 million group is The latter (Deathly Hallows Part 2), which sets up a key takeaway for forecasting and internal planning: Toy Story 5 is close enough to the “safe trajectory” set to make $400 million domestic look plausible, not wishful.

There is still risk, and it comes from the calendar. The source highlights that upcoming family films Minions & Monsters and Moana could cut into Toy Story 5’s numbers, pushing it toward the lower end of the $400 million spectrum. If they perform more like Dory’s numbers, the source says it could be looking at $460-480 million domestic. Right now, Toy Story 5 is currently $11 million ahead of Dory’s pace, and the global film total is at $585 million. For executives, this is a classic portfolio question: do you treat the summer as a single marketplace that shifts demand between titles, or as separate lanes that each film can own? Here, the source basically says the difference is whether the next wave behaves like Dory or behaves like a sharper demand-stealer.

On the DC side, the story is even more binary. Supergirl’s reboot stakes are described in terms of “not in a good place right now”: two films into the reboot, and the debut failed to hit the top six of the DCEU. It opened to 30% of last year’s Superman opening, landing at $38 million. The source connects this to a broader DC history lesson: the previous universe fizzling out led to the full restart spearheaded by director James Gunn for the reboot. It also offers production and performance comparables. Supergirl’s production is pegged at $170 million, and its opening is described as not as poor as Masters of the Universe’s, but much closer to that and Shazam! Fury of the Gods than even Black Adam. The source also cites a Tomatometer signal: 56% and not expected to be good, reinforcing that audience sentiment is not likely to rescue legs.

Then there is the “June releases in the danger zone” framing, which is effectively an internal risk model spelled out in prose. The source notes there has not been a movie that opened on the final full weekend of June to under $50 million and grossed $200 million since Tim Burton’s Batman in 1989, where it opened to $48.7 million on June 15, 2005 and crossed $205 million. It adds that hitting $150 million in June with a $40-50 million opening is a slightly better than 50/50 proposition, and only three of the 12 since 2010 achieved that, with two being animated sequels. For Supergirl, the source says there may be worry even about hitting $100 million. It also contextualizes that July 4th could be a saving grace for at least nine digits domestically, and asks the essential board-level question: can the next holiday window and remaining schedule override the early signal?

Finally, the broader studio ecosystem is a reminder that one franchise’s misfire can still be someone else’s growth curve. The source points to DC’s potential “Clayface” rescue storyline coming later in the reboot pipeline, and to a Superman sequel, Man of Tomorrow, on tap for July 2027. At the same time, it juxtaposes DC’s uncertainty with Marvel’s “resurgence with event films.” That contrast is more than narrative flavor. When one universe stumbles, distribution strategy, marketing spend timing, and even talent confidence get repriced across the industry. And for decision-makers with portfolios that depend on summer hold rates, the immediate lesson is straightforward: Toy Story 5 is converting attention into sustained revenue, while Supergirl is forcing the market to watch every weekend drop like it is an income statement.

Separate from the DC versus Pixar split, the source also flags a different kind of box office resilience: Obsession, Jackass Opens Quietly among highlights, with a 27% drop in weekend seven to $9.8 million, making for a 45-day total of $233.9 million. It says Obsession passed The Devil Wears Prada 2 as of last Tuesday to assume the role of the highest-grossing film of the summer, with expectations for $260-275 million domestic and $400 million globally, stating it is at $370 million as of the time of writing. In an environment where one major franchise run can swing sentiment, these sustained performers matter because they help define what “normal” looks like after the headline titles finish their biggest opening cycles.