World Gold Council: 9 in 10 central banks plan more gold as dollar dominance fades in five years

Central banks are preparing to buy more gold. In the World Gold Council’s annual Central Banks Gold Reserves Survey, published on June 16, about nine in 10 central banks expect their gold holdings to continue increasing over the next 12 months.

The same World Gold Council outlook pairs that shopping list with a bigger macro bet: the US dollar’s dominance in global reserves is expected to fade in five years. Put those together and you get a simple but consequential theme. This is not just a one-off “gold moment.” It is a planned reserve behavior change that is already showing up in institutions that traditionally move slowly.

Why would central banks lean into gold at the same time they watch the dollar’s position soften? The answer in the source is straightforward: it reflects a broad de-dollarisation trend that has picked up in recent years. De-dollarisation is the broad idea that countries and institutions diversify away from being overly dependent on one currency for reserves. Gold is one of the few reserve assets that many central banks can accumulate without needing a specific counterparty story, and it tends to sit in the “hold it because it endures” category.

The survey also matters because it comes with a timing signal. The expectation is over the next 12 months, not some vague long-term horizon. When you see “about nine in 10” expect increases, that suggests gold is not just a hedge for a minority of cautious actors. It implies board-level consensus across a wide range of central banks, each managing liquidity, reserves risk, and political or strategic considerations.

There is also a second layer here for markets and for anyone who builds models around “what central banks do next.” Reserve demand can be sticky once institutional policy sets the direction. Central bank gold buying does not behave like consumer fashion or like speculative trading flows. It is policy-driven accumulation. If most central banks expect to increase holdings over the next year, it can create a more stable demand floor for bullion markets even when other parts of the financial system are noisy.

That stability can have knock-on effects. Reserve managers are not just buying an asset; they are making a statement about how they want to store national balance-sheet value. If the dollar’s dominance fades in five years, central banks may want to avoid being late to the diversification cycle. The source frames this as an expected shift in reserves dynamics, which is exactly the kind of environment where institutions prefer to act early rather than scramble later.

There is also a capital markets angle. When central banks diversify reserve composition, it can change how governments and large institutions think about currency exposure, policy risk, and hedging strategies. Even if the dollar remains dominant today, the expected fading over five years is a reminder that “dominant” does not mean “unchanging.” For executives advising treasuries, investors sizing macro risk, and boards setting long-term strategy, that means the reserve backdrop is not static. The base case can shift.

Finally, the most practical takeaway is the governance signal in the survey: the expectation of continued increases is widely shared. About nine in 10 central banks expect global central bank gold holdings to continue increasing over the next 12 months, according to the World Gold Council’s annual survey, published on June 16. When so many independent institutions align on the direction of a policy action, it elevates the odds that this is the start of a sustained phase rather than a short-lived reaction.