Portugal is heading into its World Cup knockout match against Croatia as a contender to win the tournament. But the story Politico is pointing to is not just about Cristiano Ronaldo. It is about how a country with just over 10 million people and a modest economic footprint repeatedly shows up at the top of global institutions, way beyond what you would expect from its size.

The clearest proof is in the post-1986 record of European leadership roles held by Portuguese citizens. Since 1986, Portuguese citizens have served as president of the European Commission, the Court of Auditors, the Eurogroup, and the Committee of the Regions. Former Prime Minister António Costa currently presides over the European Council. Portugal has also had a Portuguese EU ombudsman, a vice president of the European Central Bank, and nine vice presidents of the European Parliament. The headline for decision-makers is simple: Portugal has built an international brand strong enough to win scrutiny-heavy, rules-heavy jobs at a rate that outpaces other EU member states.

And it is not stopping at Europe. Beyond the EU, former Prime Minister António Guterres currently serves as United Nations secretary-general. Then, last month, Portugal added another diplomatic win: it beat out Germany, the larger, wealthier, and more globally influential country, to secure one of the vacant nonpermanent seats on the U.N. Security Council. That specific contest matters because the Security Council is not an award for vibes. It is a high-stakes platform where legitimacy, legitimacy again, and operational credibility matter.

So how does a mid-size-at-best country translate “small” into “power”? Politico points to an argument from Bernardo Ivo Cruz, a former Portuguese Secretary of State for Internationalization. Cruz frames Portugal’s push for top international posts as existential, tied to the aftermath of the 1974 Carnation Revolution and the restoration of democracy. The logic is that Portugal is too small to protect its strategic interests and its citizens on its own, so it leans on multilateralism. In plain terms: if you cannot muscle your way through every negotiation, you build influence where the rules are written and enforced.

That approach also creates a particular credibility profile. Cruz says Portugal worked hard to establish itself as a fair player capable of speaking with everyone on equal terms. He also argues that small countries can be an advantage because “no one is afraid of us,” which makes them “nonthreatening interlocutors.” That is not just national self-congratulation. It is a governance strategy: reduce perceived threat, increase perceived fairness, and become the kind of partner others can accept without losing face.

This shows up in how Portugal treats the political conflict back home. Cruz describes a habit of backing candidates for international posts regardless of internal politics. The rule of thumb: never mix internal drama with events beyond borders. “You may hate someone in Lisbon,” he says, but once someone is up for an important role, it becomes a matter of defending state interests, and personal issues have no relevance there. Boards and cabinets elsewhere tend to weaponize domestic factional battles. Portugal’s reported move is to compartmentalize. That can make a country more predictable to treaty partners and more credible in coalition bargaining.

Importantly, the strategy extends to “soft diplomacy,” including sports. Cruz says that winning the World Cup match against Croatia would reinforce Portugal’s international prestige and be a cause for celebration. But he also says the tournament is succeeding as friendly competition, especially compared with typical tensions. Politico highlights what observers are seeing instead of hooliganism: Scots marching through U.S. cities with bagpipes and kilts, and Norwegians delighting American spectators with rowing rituals. Cruz frames it as a win for everyone at a moment of immense global tension, because it keeps the competition defined by celebration rather than disorder.

For executives and political operators, the second-order lesson is that influence is not only about GDP. Portugal’s profile suggests that governance systems reward candidates who can credibly commit to neutrality, fairness, and rule-of-law outcomes. If you are a leader in a country, a firm, or an institution that needs legitimacy across stakeholders, you can borrow the mechanics: invest in multilateral relationships over time, prioritize roles where process matters, and reduce the perceived threat of your agenda. Portugal’s size is not the constraint; its multilateral posture is the lever. Tonight’s game may be about Croatia. Portugal’s larger match is about being accepted as a dependable player when the world’s toughest decisions are on the table.